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新冠疫情下,服务机器人价值凸显。减少人与人之间的接触是防止疫情扩散的有效手段,在此背景下,用机器人替代人工的需求被激发,服务机器人在医疗、配送、巡检等领域走上防疫一线。服务机器人目前处在发展早期阶段,新冠疫情让社会更多看到了服务机器人的价值,为行业做了一次良好的市场教育,此次疫情有望成为行业发展的催化剂。

配送领域

此次疫情案例:云迹、擎朗、普渡等企业的配送机器人。移动机器人行业已经发展数年,并在酒店、餐厅、医院、写字楼等场景内探索出成功的应用模式。在此次疫情中,擎朗智能向杭州和上海等地捐赠送餐机器人,在隔离定点单位中为隔离人员配送三餐;云迹 科技向武汉火神山医院捐赠了十几台机器人进行物资配送;普渡科技提供机器人为隔离人 群提供免接触送餐,已向深圳、杭州、长沙等地的疫情控制机构送出约 100 台设备。

配送机器人聚焦 10-1000米领域。移动类机器人的活动范围可以分为四类:

(1)0-10 米:家庭场景。主要分为家庭作业类和家庭陪护类。该类场景的环境复杂度较低。

(2)10-100 米:酒店、写字楼、商场等场景。该范围多为室内环境,人员流动大、环境相对多变,对 机器人的性能要求较高。

(3)100-1000 米:社区等场景。该范围多为室外环境,相比于 室内环境,光线强度变化较大,环境复杂度更高。

(4)1000 米以上:自动驾驶等场景。近年来,随着低成本的导航移动方案有了很大的提升,很多企业围绕导航移动开展了商用 化的探索。

配送机器人应用于多个细分场景,市场空间约 300 亿元。云迹推出了酒店送物机器人, 钛米推出了医院运送机器人,yogo 推出了在写字楼内的送物机器人,纳恩博推出了外卖机器人,擎朗推出了餐厅送菜机器人。专注于某个场景的优势是能够较快地落地产品并构建在该场景中的壁垒,劣势则是行业天花板较低,可能出现增长瓶颈。

配送机器人目前主要应用于:

(1)酒店:用于替代服务生为客房配送物品。目标酒店客户约 9 万家,其中高档 酒店(4-5 星级以上)近 2 万家。

(2)写字楼:用于配送快递、外卖、文件等物品。主要 针对一线城市写字楼,存量超过 5 万栋。

(3)医院:用于配送药品、检验样本、医疗器械 等物品。目标医院有近 3 万家。(4)餐厅:用以配送餐饮食物。全国餐饮门店数量超过 800 万家,如果以头部 1%的餐饮门店作为目标,则约有 8 万家目标客户。综合考虑以上几个 目前主要的应用领域,按照每个目标客户使用 2 台配送机器人计算,市场容量约为 50 万 台。参考市场上商用服务机器人售价 5-8 万元/台计算,市场空间约为 300 亿元。

医疗领域

医疗机器人分为手术机器人、康复机器人、辅助机器人、医疗服务机器人四大类。根 据赛迪研究院的数据,2019 年,国内医疗机器人市场规模 43.2 亿元,占服务机器人市场 规模的 28.2%。其中,康复/辅助/手术/医疗服务机器人分别占比 47%/17%/23%/13%。此 次疫情中,主要投入使用的是医疗服务机器人中的消毒机器人产品。

此次疫情案例:钛米智能消毒机器人和大疆消毒无人机表现突出。

(1)根据澎湃新闻 1 月 31 日的报道,医疗服务机器人公司钛米已经向武汉输送 10 台智能消毒机器人,用于帮助控 制新冠疫情。钛米智能消毒机器人能够替代人工,通过自主移动对环境物表和空气进行多 点消毒,从而减少医护人员感染机率。钛米成立于 2015 年,获得国科嘉和、IDG 等多家 知名投资机构的投资。科沃斯于 2017 年和 2018 年参与钛米融资,目前持股比例为 1.86%。

(2)大疆于 2 月 4 日发布“疆军战疫”行动,设立 1000 万基金支持各地安全防疫。大 疆防疫服务队在深圳的义务消杀活动覆盖工厂、医院、社区、隔离点等区域,作业面积超 过 300 万平方米。相比传统的人工消杀,无人机防疫减少了人力,避免交叉感染,同时立 体喷洒消毒药液,空间范围更大,防疫消杀效果更好,效率更高。

巡检领域

此次疫情案例:优必选警用巡检机器人。优必选推出警用巡视机器人“建国”,通过自动巡逻对现场实施监控,实现了对口罩状态下人员的有效识别,同时可以检测人员体温。优必选的 5G 机器人充当高速检查站义警,减少人员近距接触带来的感染风险。

巡检机器人目前最成熟的应用是在电力行业,主要应用于输电、变电、配电环节。电 力行业包括“发电—输电(高空、地下)—变电—配电—用电”5 个环节。电力巡检机器人主要应用在中间的输电、变电、配电环节。

(1)输电环节:对于高空输电,一般用无人 机对架空线路、塔架进行隐患排查;对于地下输电,一般用隧道机器人对电力管廊内的设备进行监控。

(2)变电环节:变电站是各级电网的核心枢纽。变电站机器人在室外环境下工作,具备自主移动、智能检测、分析预警等功能。

(3)配电环节:配电站是电网的末端 站点,数量众多。

配电机器人在室内环境下工作,在小型化、轻量化、环境交互系统等方 面和变电机器人存在差异。电力机器人市场空间达百亿级,头部企业逐步登陆 A 股。

(1)配电站巡检:全国共有 约 30 万个配电站,目前配电站机器人的售价约 50 万元/台。按此测算,配电站机器人的渗透率每提升 1 个百分点,将带来约 15 亿元的市场规模。

(2)变电站巡检:全国 110kv 以上变电站数量约 3 万个,变电站机器人售价约 80 万元/台。按此测算,变电站机器人的渗透率每提升 1 个百分点,将带来约 2-3 亿元的市场规模。

(3)带电作业:目前全国配网 带电作业班组达到 3000 个左右。按照每个作业班组配置一台带电作业机器人、单台机器人价格约 300 万元计算,带电作业机器人的渗透率每提升 1 个百分点,将带来约 1 亿元市场规模。在国内电力机器人行业中,亿嘉和已经于 2018 年 6 月上市;申昊科技于 2019 年提交招股书;根据澎湃新闻报道,国网智能目前也在推动科创板 IPO 项目。

家用领域

家庭场景的服务机器人发展前景广阔,扫地机器人已率先破局,国内市场空间约 300 亿元。从 2014 年到 2019 年,国内扫地机器人销售量从 105 万台上升至超过 600 万台, CAGR 均超过 40%。复盘扫地机器人发展历史,技术迭代和价格下降是行业发展的两条主 线。

(1)技术迭代:除了随机—规划—智能这样的大的技术迭代外,扫地机行业还有大量 的微创新,例如加入边刷、手机 app 控制、扫拖一体等。每一次大的技术迭代周期,行业 格局都会被重塑,技术落后的企业被淘汰,站在技术前沿的企业崛起;

(2)价格下降:在 技术发展相对平稳的时期,竞争的关键是性价比,在这一点上国内企业无疑占据着优势。目前,在国内市场,科沃斯市占率约 45-50%,石头科技市占率约 25-30%。长期来看,按照扫地机器人渗透率提升至 25%计算,对应国内市场空间约 300 亿元,是目前市场空间的三倍。在家用场景中,除扫地机器人外,擦窗机器人、空气净化机器人、陪护类机器人也值得关注。

长期前景:行业处于成长期,中国有望引领行业发展

行业概况:服务机器人行业处于成长期,市场规模超百亿美元

服务机器人行业处于成长期,2019 年,全球/中国的服务机器人行业规模为 94.6/22.0 亿美元。服务机器人一般可以分成专业服务机器人和个人/家庭服务机器人。

(1)专业服务 机器人:属于 to B 的产品,应用于物流、医疗、电力、建筑等服务行业,其需求主要来自 于各个服务行业的自动化需求和辅助需求。

(2)个人/家庭服务机器人:属于 to C 的产品, 主要应用于家庭环境,满足客户在娱乐、教育、陪护、家务等方面的需求。根据中国电子 学会的统计和预测,2019 年,全球/中国的服务机器人行业规模为 94.6/22.0 亿美元,同比 +14.1%/+33.3%,5 年 CAGR 为+21.9%/+36.8%。

中国服务机器人市场规模占全球市场 25%。根据中国电子学会的统计和预测,近 5 年,中国服务机器人市场规模占全球市场约 25%,由于中国的行业增速快于全球的增速, 未来这一比例有望达到 30%。在无人机、扫地机器人、平衡车等发展较成熟的子行业中, 单一中国市场就能支撑百万级的产品出货量。

规模效应不仅体现在成本优势上,还使得国 内龙头企业能在高出货量的基础上获得用户反馈,快速迭代自身技术,不断完善产品性能。在工业机器人领域,由于核心零部件受限于国外厂商等原因,中国企业仍处于行业追随者的位置。在服务机器人领域,各国从同一起跑线上开始发展,目前中国已经处于全球领先 集团之中。中国在市场规模、产业链、产业环境等方面都具备全球竞争优势,我们认为, 未来中国有望成为全球服务机器人领域的领导者。

行业驱动:服务机器人的需求来自替代人类、辅助人类、创造新领域

虽然不同品类的服务机器人应用场景各不相同,但从产品作用的角度,可以分为替代 人类、辅助人类、创造新领域三大类。在不同需求类别的服务机器人里,都已经诞生成功落地的企业案例。例如,用以替代人类的配送机器人云迹科技、辅助人类的工业级无人机 和航拍无人机、制造新领域的家庭陪护机器人等。

替代人类:行业驱动力是服务产业的自动化需求,用机器换人。根据国家统计局数据, 中国第三产业在 GDP 中的占比持续提升,2019 年已达到 53.9%,同时,第三产业 吸纳了超过 45%的就业人员,是第二产业的 1.7 倍。在工业化时代,汽车、电子、家 电等制造行业的自动化需求拉动了工业机器人的蓬勃发展,而往后看,随着第三产业的崛起,医疗、物流、餐饮等服务行业的自动化需求有望拉动相应的服务机器人品类 的需求。尤其是在高风险的服务型行业,比如医护、救援、消防等,机器换人的需求 更强,这在此次新冠疫情中得以显现。

辅助人类:服务机器人和人类可以是协作关系。服务机器人通过人工智能、运动控制、 人机交互等技术,能有效提升人类现有的工作效率。这类机器人并不替代人类,而是以协作的形式共存。此类服务机器人价格主要以其对提高人类工作的价值为参考。以 达芬奇手术机器人为例,使用其辅助手术,一般需要在传统手术费用基础上增加 3 万 元,这 3 万元增量价值反映了达芬奇手术机器人对医生做手术效率的提升。

创造新领域:部分服务机器人企业尝试创新的应用场景。随着服务机器人技术的发展, 部分企业不满足于只在原有领域替代或辅助人类工作,也开始挖掘新的需求领域。目前此类产品大都处于市场探索和验证阶段,例如格斗机器人、情感机器人等。此类产 品需要跟踪验证其所创造的新需求是否是真实的需求。

行业变化:子行业景气分化,龙头企业脱颖而出

技术发展:导航移动技术商业化程度高,头部企业技术平台化

服务机器人的智能性主要体现在导航移动、运动控制、感知交互(视觉、语音)这几 项技术。我们认为,目前的技术成熟度排序是导航移动>运动控制>感知交互。

基于导航移 动技术的扫地机器人、物流机器人、无人机是最早成熟的子行业;基于运动控制的舵机玩具机器人也在快速成长中;而基于语音交互的儿童陪护机器人和商场导购机器人虽然数量 众多,但由于技术限制,目前仍然难以完全满足用户的需求。

部分龙头企业技术平台化,并向外输出模块化的核心部件和技术解决方案。服务机器 人企业的发展大致可以分成两个阶段:

(1)单一爆款阶段:服务机器人企业在导航移动、 运动控制、感知交互等技术领域拥有一项或多项核心技术,并找到这项技术落地的应用场景,再成功商业化推出爆款产品。例如大疆航拍无人机(飞控)、科沃斯扫地机器人(室 内导航移动)、优必选 Alpha 机器人(舵机);

(2)技术平台化阶段:在爆款产品高出货量 的基础上,不断迭代和打磨企业的核心技术,并将核心技术平台化,开发出其他品类的服 务机器人,例如大疆植保无人机(飞控)、科沃斯商用机器人(室内移动导航)、优必选 JIMU 机器人(舵机)。部分龙头企业也开始对外部企业提供模块化的核心部件和技术解决方案。

受益于工程师红利和高端人才储备,国内服务机器人行业处在人才红利期。国内目前已经形成珠三角和长三角等多个服务机器人产业集群,国内每年大量的毕业生为这些企业输送了充足的技术人才。

此外,华人学者在服务机器人相关领域的研究已走在世界前列。根据美国白宫发布的《国家人工智能研究与发展策略规划》,中国和美国在深度学习领域的研究领先其他国家。华人学者在人工智能领域已经具有相当的话语权,此外,越来越多国内外顶级高校的年轻学者选择回国投身服务机器人行业,加上业界企业热衷于和高校成 立合作实验室,国内服务机器人行业梯次化人才结构已经初步形成。

应用场景:景气分化,部分子行业已经实现良性发展

服务机器人不同子行业景气度开始分化。前几年,受益于深度学习技术的突破,以及资本的助力,服务机器人各个子行业迎来百花齐放的阶段。但随着客户尝鲜心理逐渐褪去,我们观察到不同子行业的景气度出现明显分化。过去三年中,无人机、扫地机器人、配送 机器人等行业进入良性发展阶段,而相反,儿童陪护机器人和导购机器人市场已成红海市 场,同质化竞争严重。

应用场景和技术水平是行业景气度的决定因素。我们在报告《服务机器人专题研究报 告—技术革新静待奇点来临,产品落地与机器人共舞》( 2016-11-9)中提出,一个新的服 务机器人品类能否兴起主要取决于其技术是否成熟,以及应用场景是否选取恰当。在应用场景方面,能够对用户产生价值的场景一般具有任务单一、重复度高、空间结构化等特点;在技术领域,需要判断技术是否具备商业化的条件,例如,受限于 AI、网络、收声等瓶颈, 市场上尚未出现让用户真正满意的语音交互类服务机器人。

服务机器人头部企业与资本市场的互动增强,优质企业陆续登陆 A 股。在二级市场, 先前 A 股企业涉足服务机器人业务主要通过收购或参股的方式进行,服务机器人在 A 股也 更多属于主题投资范畴。2018 年,扫地机器人企业科沃斯和电力机器人企业亿嘉和相继 上市,A 股迎来纯正的服务机器人企业。科创板开通后,更多优质的服务机器人企业有望 登陆 A 股市场,九号智能(平衡车)、石头科技(扫地机器人)都已经在推进科创板 IPO 项目。

全产业链:核心部件不受制于人,产业生态逐步建立

服务机器人产业链包括底层硬件、技术模块、终端产品。(1)底层硬件:主要包括芯 片和各类传感器; (2)技术模块:基于底层的芯片和传感器,以及配套的算法,能够开发 出导航移动、运动控制、感知交互(视觉、语音)等技术模块;(3)终端产品:服务机器 人终端产品是技术模块与功能组件的组合,其中,技术模块是服务机器人智能性的基础,而功能组件决定其应用领域。例如,科沃斯的技术模块主要是室内导航移动技术,功能组 件是清扫和拖地的零部件。

服务机器人全产业链上国内都有全球领先的企业,核心部件并不受制于国外供应商。在底层硬件领域,中国拥有寒武纪和地平线等芯片企业,思岚科技和镭神智能等传感器企 业。在技术模块领域,中国拥有科大讯飞(语音)、商汤科技(视觉)、奥比中光(体感)等企业。在终端产品领域,中国已经诞生了大疆创新、科沃斯、石头科技、优必选、九号智能等一批已经成功实现商业化的企业。产业链上不同环节的国内企业形成了正反馈机制,优秀的底层硬件和技术模块企业帮助国内终端产品企业不断提升产品性能,而大量终端产 品的销售和用户反馈又给硬件和技术企业提供了打磨和迭代自身技术的机会。

国内正逐步形成核心部件—本体制造—集成商的上下游合作模式,配套的保险等服务 也开始出现。在服务机器人行业发展初期,产业生态并未建立起来,很多企业不仅需要投入研发上游的核心部件,还需要直接开展市场推广活动。我们看到,未来在发展较成熟的子行业中,已经出现类似工业机器人行业的“核心部件—本体制造—集成商”的上下游模 式,服务机器人企业通过外购的方式获得核心部件,自身专注于本体产品的开发制造,再交由下游的集成商来做市场推广。

在无人机行业,这种上下游合作的模式正在实践中,例如,大疆生产农业植保无人机,各地的植保队购买大疆的无人机来为农户提供植保服务。近年,大疆通过降低农业植保无人机的价格来培育下游的植保队的规模,同时也提供飞手 培训和无人机保险等服务,整个无人机的生态体系正在逐步完善。

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