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工业机器人正重塑北美制造业 国内有何借鉴？

据国外媒体报道，加拿大机器人公司Clearpath Robotics下属企业OTTO Motors首席执行官马修·伦德尔（Matthew Rendall）日前在techcrunch网站撰文指出，虽然工业机器人将取代人类在制造业的工作岗位，但长期来看，他认为这是一件好事。
整个北美制造业正在经历重大变革。
仅仅在2000年至2010年的十年间，整个北美地区的制造业就有560万个工作岗位消失。值得注意的是，在减少的工作岗位中，其中仅有13%可以归因于国际贸易。而85%工作岗位的消失是缘于“生产力增长”，事实上就是工业机器人取代了人类的工作。
对于机器人将会消灭整个制造业，听起来让人紧张。诸如“当机器人开始接管时如何捍卫自己的工作？”“你的工作是否会被机器人取代？”等相关文章更是加剧了这种担忧情绪。
但事实上并非如此。在过去的20年中，美国制造业总产值增加了近40%，达到了创纪录的2.4万亿。虽然工作岗位在减少，但单位工业产值在增加。制造业的从业人员有更好的教育经历、更高的报酬，产品附加值也更高，而整个制造业的生产技术也更为先进。
实际情况是，目前美国制造业有200万的劳动力缺口，这主要是制造业员工老龄化的问题。在美国，制造业从业人员的平均年龄是45岁，最近两年半都持续在全美非农职业中保持高位。同时，年轻一代从事制造业的人数基本可以忽略不计。
这些统计数据带给我们不同的结论：机器人并不是在占有我们的工作机会，而是在加以改进。
机器人更安全也更为可靠，它们也更为有秩序。此外，机器人的性价比更高，其甚至可以在12月或是更短时间内就收回投资。这是成本驱动下，对整个行业的持续改变。
相应的成本节约也会引发一系列的连锁反应。在北美制造业，会有更多的理想工作岗位被保留下来，制造商也可以有更多精力专注于创新。最终，新的工作岗位需要更高的学历、更高的技能水平，这虽然会在短期内导致部分人失业，但却符合工人和整个社会的长远利益。
从历史角度来看，技术对生产的影响总是惊人的相似于统一。上个世纪，汽车工业从人工组装发展到机器全自动话组装。其结果是，汽车制造商开始生产更多的汽车，而每辆汽车所雇佣的工人也更多。工人不再需要亲力危险工作，而是通过编程机器人进行相关操作，而且所获得的劳动报酬也更高。随着技术的进步，我们的生产更高效，生活质量也更高。
经济学的相关研究也有效证实了这一点。诸如工业革命等对自动化技术进行大量投资的时代，国内生产总值都有大幅提高。技术的发展创造了一个良性循环，为工人带来更为安全的工作环境。同时，更为熟练的工作技能意味着更高的工作报酬，这也推动人们将更多精力用于高等教育，通过熟练的劳动技能提高自身的可支配收入，从而有效刺激经济发展。
《华盛顿邮报》近期发表的一篇文章很好的阐释了这一点：“这是生产力提高所带动的市场经济自然活力。农业生产率的提高，带动了农民向城市的迁移，从而刺激了工业经济，最终整个社会发展如今天般富有成效，我们的医疗、教育以及公共服务也更为优秀。”
现在，我们也处于同样的周期之中。这也是当前北美制造业的现状，事实上，工业机器人正在让整个行业变得越来越好。它们让我们的工作更好，不仅有利于发展当地产业，也有助于提高我们的生活质量。更高水平的自动化、生产效率、生产安全以及生产力，北美制造业不仅能够生存下去，而且将展示出更多创新力。
工业机器人会取代你的工作吗？也许会。但是凡事皆有两面性。你或许会找到更好的工作，更高的报酬。未来总归是美好。
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