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工业机器人“跑步”入车间 上半年产量激增52%

国务院近日印发《新一代人工智能发展规划》，提出了面向2030年我国新一代人工智能发展的指导思想、战略目标、重点任务和保障措施，部署构筑我国人工智能发展的先发优势，加快建设创新型国家和世界科技强国。在实践中，不少领域已经引入人工智能及企业进行人工智能探索和布局，如近年来，我国推进制造业转型升级，工业机器人产量大幅增长，制造业企业大规模使用工业机器人，提升了制造业生产水平和效率，在这基础上，制造业继续引入人工智能前沿技术，使制造业向智能制造迈进。企业竞相布局人工智能，除了细分领域的佼佼者外，阿里巴巴、百度、腾讯、联想等科技巨头纷纷在近期公布其人工智能战略，相关企业也相继推出相关应用产品。不过，目前中国人工智能与发达国家相比仍有差距，在人才培养、基础技术研究等多个层面还存在差距，这需要在政策的支持和引导下，多方合力，构建人工智能人才培育、技术标准、产品数据、商业应用和推进转型升级的全产业生态群。
导读
这正是制造业转型升级希望实现的场景，即从自动化到智能化，对标德国工业4.0。从政府层面看，这亦将是力推的重点。一个代表性的例子是东莞，该市一名经信局人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者，目前东莞已在过去3年大规模推动“机器换人”基础上，将政策重点转向“打造智能制造全生态链”。
被誉为“制造业皇冠顶端的明珠”的工业机器人，最近几年在我国工业经济尤其是制造业发展中的“身影”日渐璀璨。
近日，国家统计局数据显示，上半年我国工业机器人产量同比增长52.3%，其中6月同比增长61.1%，涨幅居各类工业产品第一。21世纪经济报道记者进一步梳理发现，这一增速比去年高出不少，今年来，我国工业机器人产量再次持续走高，单月同比增长均超40%，最高的3月更达78.2%。
工业机器人产量激增背后是制造业加速转型升级带来的“供需两旺”效应的显现。一方面，作为制造业转型升级，尤其是应对人口红利消减的“必需品”，工业机器人被越来越多地应用到车间；另一方面，旺盛的需求及新经济属性，近年吸引一批工业机器人产业项目争相上马，产能开始步入释放期。
值得注意的是，这正推动我国制造业加速向“智能制造”探索和迈进。21世纪经济报道记者调研发现，工业机器人在帮助诸多制造业企业实现自动化的同时，更多前沿技术，如视觉感知、大数据和云计算等人工智能技术也开始及时“跟进”，技术融合正在创造出更为深刻的产业变革。
国家统计局服务业统计司司长许剑毅近期在分析上半年经济时也指出，制造业企业广泛引入人工智能，使生产过程更“聪明”、更有效率。
工业机器人产量激增
近年来，我国工业机器人的产量，刻画出一条清晰的上扬曲线。
2016年我国工业机器人产量为72426台（套），同比增长34.3%；而从2017年上半年的表现情况来看，国产机器人的产量仍然处于快速上涨通道：产量达到59097台（套），同比增长52.3%，远超上一年30%左右的涨幅。
这一上升态势也使得国产工业机器人从上半年的工业经济中脱颖而出，其同比涨幅位居各类工业产品第一，甚至被认为是新兴产业的代表。
这背后，一大关键原因是需求旺盛。近年来，随着我国“人口红利”的不断消减，制造业掀起“机器换人”浪潮。
自2013年至今，中国已连续4年成为全球最大的机器人市场，份额占全球总销售量超四分之一。国际机器人联合会提供的数据还显示，2016年中国工业机器人销量9万台，同比增长31%，远超全球14%的增速。
作为制造业大省的广东，近年就出现工业机器人“跑步”进入车间。广东省经信委的数据显示，2016年广东共新增应用机器人2.2万台，总量超过6万台，约占全国五分之一，成为全国最大工业机器人应用市场。
这些工业机器人被应用到搬运、抛光、打磨、焊接、组装和检测等制造业环节，帮助减少沉重的人工成本或提高生产效率和质量。以东莞为例，该市过去3年通过推动“机器换人”，相对可减少用工近20万人。
而从趋势来看，近年来，随着劳动力成本不断上涨的“步步紧逼”，加之“机器换人”示范效应初显，以及包括资金补贴在内的政策持续鼓励下，现实中还有越来越多的制造企业开始尝试或扩大工业机器人应用。
“现在老板们聚到一起，话题经常是用了什么样的机器人，而不像过去总围绕招了多少人。”东莞蓝创捷特佳电子有限公司负责人曾建华告诉21世纪经济报道记者，该企业今年自动化改造预算为800万元，未来计划逐年翻倍。
值得注意的是，国产机器人产量激增的另一个更为直接的原因是，近年各地争相上马布局的诸多机器人产业项目，产能开始逐步释放。工信部早前曾披露，这几年工业机器人产业发展速度比较快，全国已建成和在建的机器人产业园区超过40个，短短几年机器人企业数量就超过800家。
这在广东亦有着直观表现，近年来，受巨大市场需求的吸引，如华中数控、大连机床等一批工业机器人企业纷纷“抢滩登陆”广东，包括设立生产基地，这带来产能扩张，而本土企业也在积极提高产能和拓展市场。
东莞市机器人产业协会秘书长陈永刚告诉21世纪经济报道记者，从供给看，过去几年机器人产业大热，其中不少企业都拿到投资，扩张生产规模，如今表现为产能提升；从需求分析，制造业转型升级的巨大需求仍是强大拉动力。
“需求拉动仍是根本原因。”陈永刚补充说，今年上半年经济相对较好，尤其是3C、汽车制造等机器人应用的“主力”行业，这也会在一定程度上促使这些企业采购更多机器人，进而拉动机器人产量增加。
“智能制造”探索提速
国产工业机器人产量大幅上升，为制造业企业带来相对较低的自动化改造成本，“供需两旺”格局背后，正有越来越多工业机器人进入制造业车间。
国际机器人联合会预计，到2020年，中国工业机器人保有量在80万台以上，机器人密度（每万名工人使用工业机器人数量）达到150台以上。广东省经信委此前也曾预测，到2020年末工业机器人保有量将达30万台以上。
不过，这并不是这场产业变革的全部。21世纪经济报道记者在调研中还发现，与此同时，更多前沿技术，如视觉感知、大数据和云计算等人工智能技术也开始及时“跟进”，继而推动制造业加速向“智能制造”迈进。
这样的探索正在发生。比如，东莞劲胜精密组件股份有限公司，这家从事电子产品精密模具及机构件研发生产的企业，近年在进行了大规模的“机器换人”以提高生产效率和质量的基础上，开始尝试引入传感器、大数据和工业管理软件等，谋求实现更进一步的转型升级，对标德国工业4.0。
“让机器人能干一些简单的活，但是还不够，我们想让它们能实现更多功能，甚至能做一些人做不了的事情。”劲胜精密智能制造事业群方案工程师徐海钢对21世纪经济报道记者说。他举例，通过精密的传感器捕捉机床主轴电流，然后收集大数据，并交由后台进行监控、分析和判断，一旦机床刀具出现一丝破损，系统能瞬间报警并及时停机，“这在过去靠人是做不到的”。
深圳市中诺通讯有限公司负责人欧先仙则向21世纪经济报道记者介绍了另一个案例，通过对生产线上包括工业机器人在内的设备的系统化，可实现后端设备对前端设备生产工艺的自动优化调节，不再需要人的干预。
“机器通过大数据不断学习，越来越聪明，一旦发现接收到的产品与数据存在误差，比如大了一点，它就会自动向前端发出调整指令。”欧先仙说。
这正是制造业转型升级希望实现的场景，即从自动化到智能化，对标德国工业4.0。从政府层面看，这亦将是力推的重点。一个代表性的例子是东莞，该市一名经信局人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者，目前东莞已在过去3年大规模推动“机器换人”基础上，将政策重点转向“打造智能制造全生态链”。
许剑毅近期在分析上半年工业经济运行情况时也指出，随着人工智能在大数据、云计算等技术手段协同推进下取得突破性发展，制造业与服务业深度融合，推动制造业智能化、信息化进程。制造业企业广泛引入人工智能，使生产过程更“聪明”、更有效率。
广东省机器人协会会长苏汉明对21世纪经济报道记者分析，这事实上就是整个智能制造的基本路径和思路，新技术的不断涌现并与制造业相结合，尤其是多技术的融合将给制造业带来革命性的变化。近年来，国外技术的不断引进和国内高校科研院所科研成果转化的加快，正提速这一过程。
苏汉明进一步指出，机器人的大规模应用是一个基础，当前也仍需继续推进，但从远期角度来看，不同于简单的“机器换人”，智能制造更突出“软硬结合”，并强调企业整体管理运营水平的提速，这一挑战将更大。
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