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我国已成为全球最大的工业机器人市场,人口结构变化、技术进步和政策加持等因素驱动我国工业机器人产业加速发展。2015 年我国工业机器人销量6.6 万台,全球占比26.66%,连续三年稳居全球销售国第一,对标工业发达国家的工业机器人密度普遍水平200 台/万名工人,我国工业机器人存量较当前仍有近5 倍的增量空间。我国人口结构拐点已现,随着技术进步和国家产业政策不断加持,本土品牌工业机器人企业迎来良好发展契机,未来5-10年将呈现加速发展趋势。
核心零部件是产业链布局关键,我国企业面临“夹缝中求生存”的困境。工业机器人主要由本体、伺服电机、减速机、控制器和传感器等构成,其中三大核心零部件是产业链布局关键,成本占比超70%。日本和欧洲是全球工业机器人的主要产地,发那科、安川电机、库卡和ABB 四大家族在我国的工业机器人市场中占据绝对主导地位,2012 年市场份额合计超50%,我国工业机器人产业发展起步较晚,面临“夹缝中求生存”的困境。
我国工业机器人产业机会分析。当前我国工业机器人产业存在特点:关键环节技术能力缺失,核心零部件主要依赖进口;核心技术创新能力薄弱,集中在中低端产品,高端产品质量可靠性低;企业“小散弱”问题突出,产业竞争力缺乏等。
核心零部件进口替代有望分层逐步实现:控制器与国外产品差距最小,有望率先实现进口替代;伺服系统自主配套能力初具,短期全面进口替代难度较大;精密减速机主要依赖进口,短期国产化替代进口难度最大。
本体制造扎堆中低端,高端产品依赖进口,随着我国机器人上游企业对三大关键零部件国产化进口替代的分步实现,利好国内本体制造的发展,届时具备向产业链上游延伸的本体制造企业的爆发力值得期待。
系统集成商具备天然的本地化优势,有望在3C 产业重构竞争格局。对标工业发达国家,我国汽车行业工业机器人仍然存在2~3 倍增量需求,但国内厂商短期仍难以打破国际巨头的垄断之势,而依托国内3C 产业快速增长与低自动化并存的局面,国内系统集成商凭借天然的本地化服务优势,有望重构竞争格局,成就国内机器人系统集成的下一个风口。
当前我国工业机器人仍处于发展初期阶段,国产工业机器人的成本受制于核心零部件的进口溢价而居高不下,短期内仍难以全面改观,而只有真正掌握核心零部件的关键技术才是破局之道。从产业链的角度进行梳理,我们看好具备上游核心零部件自主研发和生产能力的企业,专注细分领域、基础工艺扎实、具备向产业链上游拓展的本体制造企业及具备规模优势的系统集成企业。
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