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展望不久的将来,新兴技术将允许你虚拟地传送到一个遥远的地方,并真切地感受到网络旅行者们的握手和拥抱。此外,类似人类的(和动物性的)机器人也变得越来越普遍,它们被设计用来与人交往;一种系统能在几秒钟内查明食物中毒爆发源头;为小型相机和其他设备铺平道路的微型镜头;用其他无用的植物废料制成的坚固的、可降解的塑料;基于DNA的数据存储系统,能可靠地存储海量信息,以及更多新兴技术……

一个由领先技术专家组成的国际指导小组,探讨今年的“十大新兴技术”。在征求全球其他专家的提名后,指导小组根据若干标准评估了数十项提案:提议的技术是否有可能为社会和经济带来重大利益?它们能改变既定的做事方式吗?它们是否仍处于开发的早期阶段,但却引起了研究实验室、公司或投资者的极大兴趣?它们是否有可能在未来几年内取得重大进展?

         1. 生物降解塑料解决重大污染问题

我们的文明建立在塑料之上。根据世界经济论坛的数据,仅在2014年,工业产生了311公吨塑料,预计到2050年这一数字将增加两倍。然而,只有不到15%的产品被回收利用。其余大部分都被焚烧,躺在垃圾填埋场或被遗弃在环境中,在那里,由于对微生物的消化有抵抗力,它可以存活数百年。积聚在海洋中的塑料碎片会引起各种各样的问题,从野生动物误摄入到释放有毒化合物。它甚至可以通过受污染的鱼进入我们的身体。

可生物降解塑料可以缓解这些问题,有助于实现“循环”塑料经济的目标,其中塑料来自并转化回生物质。与衍生自石化产品的标准塑料一样,可生物降解的版本由聚合物(长链分子)组成,这些聚合物可以在其流体状态下模塑成各种形式。目前可用的选择 – 主要由玉米、甘蔗或废油脂和食用油制成 -通常缺乏标准食品的机械强度和视觉特性。最近从纤维素或木质素(植物中的干物质)生产塑料的突破有望克服这些缺点。对于环境的额外好处,纤维素和木质素可以从非食用植物获得,例如生长在食用作物不适宜生长的边缘土地上的巨型芦苇,或者从废弃的木材和农业副产品中获得,否则这些植物将不起任何作用。

纤维素是地球上最丰富的有机聚合物,是植物细胞壁的主要成分;木质素填充了那些墙壁的空间,提供了强度和刚性。为了用这些物质制造塑料,制造商必须首先将它们分解成它们的结构单元或单体。研究人员最近找到了这两种物质的方法。木质素的作用特别重要,因为木质素的单体由芳香环组成 – 这些化学结构赋予一些标准塑料机械强度和其他所需的特征。木质素不溶于大多数溶剂,但研究人员已经证明某些环境友好的离子液体(主要由离子组成)可以选择性地将其与木材和木本植物分开。与真菌和细菌相似的基因工程酶可以将溶解的木质素分解成其组分。

公司正在以这些发现为基础。例如,伦敦帝国理工学院分拆出来的Chrysalix Technologies,开发了一种工艺,利用低成本离子液体将纤维素和木质素与原料分离。芬兰的一家生物技术公司MetGen Oy生产了许多基因工程酶,可将不同来源的木质素分解成各种应用所需的成分。Mobius(前身为Grow Bioplastics)正在开发用于生物降解花盆、农业覆盖物和其他产品的木质素塑料颗粒。

要使这种新型塑料得到广泛应用,必须克服许多障碍。一个是成本。另一种方法是尽量减少用于生产木质素的土地和水的用量——即使木质素只来自废物,也需要水将其转化为塑料。与任何重大挑战一样,解决办法将需要采取一系列措施,从法规到社会使用和处置塑料方式的自愿变化。尽管如此,生产可生物降解塑料的新方法提供了一个完美的例子,说明更环保的溶剂和更有效的生物催化剂如何有助于在一个主要行业中产生循环经济。

         2. 社交机器人与人愉快合作

在工业和医学领域,机器人经常建造、分解和检查事物;他们还协助手术并在药房配药。预计未来几年社交机器人将变得更加复杂和普及。该领域似乎已达到临界点,机器人具有更强的交互能力,并执行比以往更多的有用任务。

与大多数机器人一样,社交机器人使用人工智能来决定如何对通过摄像头和其他传感器接收的信息采取行动。通过研究如何形成感知,构成社交和情感智能以及人们如何能够推断出他人的思想和感受等问题,从而获得以栩栩如生的方式做出回应的能力。人工智能的进步使设计师能够将这些心理学和神经科学的见解转化为允许机器人识别声音、面部和情绪的算法;解释言语和手势;适当地回应复杂的口头和非口头暗示;眼神交流;会话;通过学习反馈,奖励和批评来适应人们的需求。

因此,社交机器人正在填补越来越多的角色。例如,一个名为Pepper的47英寸人形机器人(来自SoftBank Robotics)识别人脸和基本的人类情感,并通过触摸屏在其“胸部”进行对话。全球约有15,000名Pepper执行酒店登记、机场等服务客户服务,购物协助和快餐结账。Temi(来自Temi USA)和Loomo(Segway Robotics)是下一代个人助理,像Amazon Echo和Google Home一样,但是可以移动,提供了更高级别的功能。例如,Loomo不仅是一个伙伴,而且还可以根据命令将其变成一辆用于运输的踏板车。

社交机器人特别有助于帮助世界上不断增长的老年人口。PARO治疗机器人(由日本国家先进工业科学与技术研究所开发)看起来像一个可爱的海豹,旨在刺激和减轻阿尔茨海默病患者和护理机构中其他患者的压力。Mabu(Catalia Health)作为健康助手,特别是老年人,提醒他们散步和服药,并打电话给家人。社交机器人作为玩具也越来越多地吸引消费者。早期尝试将社交行为纳入玩具中,例如孩之宝的Baby Alive和索尼的AIBO机器人狗,取得了有限的成功。但两者都在复苏,最新版本的AIBO具有复杂的语音和手势识别功能,可以教授技巧并根据之前的互动开发新的行为。

2018年全球消费机器人销售额估计达到56亿美元,预计到2025年底市场将增长到190亿美元,每年销售超过6500万台机器人。鉴于多家资金雄厚的消费者机器人公司(如Jibo和Anki)都失败了,这种趋势似乎令人惊讶。但是,一波机器人正在排队取代已经不复存在的机器人,包括BUDDY(蓝蛙机器人),这是一个大眼睛的移动设备,除了扮演个人助理和提供家庭自动化和安全之外还可以玩游戏。

         3. 超透镜将实现微型光学设备的设计

随着手机、电脑和其他电子产品变得越来越小,它们的光学元件却顽固地拒绝缩小。值得注意的是,使用传统的玻璃切割技术和玻璃弯曲技术很难制作出超薄的镜片,并且玻璃镜片中的元件通常需要堆叠以正确聚焦光线。工程师们最近发现了更小、更轻的金属替代品背后的许多物理原理,这些替代品被称为超透镜(Metalenses)。这些透镜可以实现显微镜和其他实验室工具以及消费产品(例如相机、虚拟现实耳机和物联网光学传感器)的更加小型化。它们可以增强光纤的功能。

超透镜由比微米薄的平坦表面组成,其覆盖有一系列纳米尺度的物体,例如突出的柱子或钻孔。当入射光照射到这些元件时,其许多特性会发生变化 – 包括其偏振,强度,相位和传播方向。研究人员可以精确定位纳米级物体,以确保离开超透镜的光具有选定的特征。更重要的是,元透镜是如此之薄,可以彼此重叠而不会显著增加尺寸。研究人员已经展示了光学器件,如光谱仪和由这些平面堆叠制成的偏光计。

在去年的重大突破中,研究人员解决了一个叫做色差的问题。当白光穿过典型的透镜时,其不同波长的光线以不同的角度偏转,从而聚焦在距透镜不同的距离处;为了解决这个问题,今天的工程师需要将镜片分层。现在,单个超透镜可以将所有白光波长聚焦到同一个点上。除了创造这种“消除色差”的元透镜之外,科学家们还开发了能够校正其他像差的变形镜,例如昏迷和散光,这会导致图像失真和模糊。

除了减小尺寸之外,超透镜最终应该降低光学元件的成本,因为小尺寸透镜可以用半导体工业中已在使用的相同设备制造。这一特性提高了制造光纤传感器的光学和电子元件的诱人前景。

然而,目前费用仍然很高,因为难以将纳米级元件精确地放置在厘米级芯片上。其他限制也需要解决。到目前为止,超透镜不像传统镜头那样有效地传输光 – 这是全彩色成像等应用中的一个重要功能。此外,它们太小而无法捕获大量光线,这意味着,至少就目前而言,它们不适合拍摄高质量的照片。

尽管如此,在未来几年内,超透镜可能会用于更小、更易于制造的传感器、诊断工具,如内窥镜成像设备和光纤。这些潜在的应用程序足以引起政府机构和三星和谷歌等公司的研究支持。至少有一家初创公司Metalenz预计将在未来几年内将超透镜推向市场。

 4. 一类特殊的蛋白质是有望治愈癌症和阿尔茨海默氏症靶向药

几十年前,科学家们发现了一类特殊的蛋白质,可以将疾病从癌症转变为神经退行性疾病。这些“固有无序蛋白质”(IDPs)看起来与具有固定结构的蛋白质不同,后者在细胞中更为常见。IDPs是形状移位者,表现为不断改变配置的组成部分。这种松散的结构使得IDPs能够在关键时刻汇集各种各样的分子,例如在细胞对压力的反应过程中。较不灵活的蛋白质倾向于具有更有限数量的结合配偶体。当IDPs不能正常运作时,就会引发疾病。

然而,医学研究人员无法创建消除或调节机能失调的IDPs的治疗方法。事实上,许多药物被认为是无法下药的。这是因为现在使用的大多数药物需要稳定的结构来定位,而且IDPs无法保持足够长的时间。众所周知的可导致癌症的无序蛋白质 – 包括c-Myc,p53和K-RAS–已被证明过于难以捉摸。但这种情况正在开始改变。

科学家正在利用生物物理学组合,计算能力和更好地理解IDPs来识别抑制这些蛋白质的化合物的方式,有些已成为真正的候选药物。2017年,法国和西班牙的研究人员发现,FDA批准的一种名为三氟哌啶(用于治疗精神疾病和焦虑)的药物与NUPR1(一种与胰腺癌有关的紊乱蛋白)结合并抑制其活性。大规模的筛选测试评估了数千种药物的治疗潜力,发现了几种抑制c-Myc的药物,其中一些正走向临床发展。此外,还发现了一些分子可以作用于β-淀粉样蛋白等IDPs,而β-淀粉样蛋白与阿尔茨海默病等疾病有关。

这一名单还将继续增加,特别是当IDPs在被称为无膜细胞器的关键细胞部分所起的作用变得更加清晰时。这些细胞器在特定的时间将重要的细胞分子(如蛋白质和RNA)聚集在一起,同时将其他分子分开。接近使某些反应更容易发生;分离可以防止各种反应。科学家们设计了一种功能强大的新型分子操纵工具,名为Corelets和CasDrop,可以让研究人员控制这些细胞器的形成。通过使用这些工具和其他工具,研究人员了解到IDPs可能有助于控制这种细胞器的聚合、运转和分开。

业界也在押注IDPs的治疗潜力。生物技术公司IDP Pharma正在开发一种治疗多发性骨髓瘤和小细胞肺癌的蛋白质抑制剂。Graffinity Pharmaceuticals,现在是NovAliX的一部分,已经发现了一种小分子,可以靶向失调的tau蛋白,这种蛋白与阿尔茨海默病的病理有关。Cantabio制药公司正在寻找小分子来稳定参与神经变性的IDPs。在未来三到五年内,这些曾经“无法下药”的蛋白质将越来越有可能成为药物开发的目标。

5. 智能肥料减少环境污染

为了养活世界上不断增长的人口,农民需要提高作物产量。施用更多肥料可能有所帮助,但是标准版本效率低下并且经常损害环境。幸运的是,生态控制释放肥料的产品已经可以使用并且变得越来越智能。

农民通常以两种方式施肥。用氨、尿素或其他物质喷洒田地,当它们与水反应时产生营养氮。或者使用钾盐或其他矿物质的颗粒来产生磷,也与水反应。但是这些营养成分相对较少进入植物。相反,大部分氮以温室气体的形式进入大气,磷最终流入流域,经常引发藻类和其他生物的过度生长。相反,控制肥料配方和释放速度可以确保显著更高水平的营养物质到达作物,从而导致更高的产量和更少的肥料。

一类被称为缓释肥料已经销售了一段时间。这些配方通常由微小的胶囊组成,胶囊中含有氮,磷和其他所需营养素的物质。外壳减慢了水可以进入内部物质以释放营养物的速率以及最终产物从胶囊中逸出的速率。结果,营养物质逐渐被排出,而不是快速流出去,无法有效吸收。较新的配方包括通过延迟原料(例如尿素)向营养素的转化而进一步减缓营养物递送的物质。

最近,通过复杂的材料和制造技术开发了更完全符合“控制释放”描述的肥料,这些材料和制造技术可以调节壳体,使得它们随着土壤的温度、酸度或湿度变化以所需的方式改变营养物释放速率。通过组合不同类型的调制胶囊,制造商可以制作具有适合特定作物或生长条件需求的配方的肥料。Haifa Group和ICL Specialty Fertilizers等公司提供更精确的控制。例如,Haifa将养分释放速率与温度联系起来;随着气温升高,作物生长速度和养分排放量一起增加。

虽然控释技术使肥料更有效,但它们并没有消除肥料使用的所有缺点。例如,产品仍包括氨,尿素和钾碱;生产这些物质是能源密集型的,这意味着它们的生产会促进温室气体的产生和气候变化。然而,通过使用环境友好的氮源并掺入提高植物吸收氮和磷的效率的微生物,可以减轻这种影响。没有证据表明组成壳的材料会损害环境,但每当大量引入任何新物质时,都必须监测这种风险。

控释肥料是可持续农业方法的一部分,称为精准农业。这种方法通过结合数据分析、人工智能和各种传感器系统来确定在任何给定时间内植物需要多少肥料和水,并通过部署自动车辆在规定的数量和地点运送养分,从而提高作物产量,并将过量的养分释放降到最低。然而,安装精密系统的成本很高,因此只有大规模的操作才能使用它们。相比之下,先进的控释肥料相对便宜,可以成为帮助农民持续增加作物产量的一线技术。

 6. 协作远程呈现使距离(相对而言)变得无关紧要

想象一下,世界各地的一群人顺利地互动,好像他们本人在一起意愿,甚至能够感受到彼此的触摸。能够实现这种“协作远程呈现”的组件可以改变我们一起工作和玩耍的方式,使物理位置无关紧要。

正如视频通话应用程序(如Skype和FaceTime)已经成为消费者可以广泛使用的商业领域,大型多人在线游戏已经彻底改变了人们在互联网上的互动方式,协作远程呈现可以改变人们在商业中虚拟协作的方式。例如,医疗服务提供者将能够与患者远程工作,就像他们在同一个房间一样。朋友和家人将能够享受共同的经历,比如一起呆在一个舒适的房间里或游览一个新的城市,即使他们实际上不在同一个地方。

几个领域的进展使这一前景变得可行。增强现实(AR)和虚拟现实(VR)技术已经变得足够强大且价格合理,可以广泛采用。电信公司正在以足够快的速度推出5G网络,以处理来自高级传感器阵列的大量数据,而无需延迟时间。创新者正在完善技术,使人们能够与远程环境进行物理交互,包括触觉传感器,使人们可以感受到机器人头像的触摸。设想用于协作远程呈现的完全感官沉浸将需要比视频通话低得多的延迟时间——有时甚至可能要占用5G网络——但预测人工智能算法可以消除用户对时间间隔的感知。

尽管协作远程呈现仍然处于新兴阶段,但所有技术都已准备就绪,以便在三到五年内实现变革。例如,微软和其他公司已经投资了预计将在2025年支撑数十亿美元产业的技术。而XPRIZE基金会已经启动了1000万美元的ANA Avatar XPRIZE竞赛(由全日空航空公司赞助),旨在启动这些技术,将“人类的感觉,行动和存在实时传递到远程位置,从而形成一个更加互联的世界。” 随着智能手机的普及,人们的日常生活和工作也将发生翻天覆地的变化。

         7. 先进的食品跟踪和包装将挽救生命并减少浪费

据世界卫生组织统计,每年约有6亿人食物中毒,有42万人死亡。当疫情爆发时,调查人员可能需要数天或数周来跟踪其来源。与此同时,更多人可能患病,大量未受污染的食物可能会跟着污染的食品一起被丢弃。寻找来源可能是一项缓慢的工作,因为食物从一个农场到另一个餐馆的路径复杂,而这些旅程的记录保存在本地系统中,系统通常不会相互通信。

联合使用两种技术可以减少食物中毒和食物浪费。第一个是区块链技术(以管理虚拟货币而闻名)的创新应用,正在开始解决可追溯性问题。其次,增强的食品包装正在提供新的方法来确定食品是否在适当的温度下存放以及它们是否已经开始变质。

区块链是一种分散的会计系统,其中条目按顺序记录在多个相同的“分类账”中,这些“分类账”存储在多个位置的计算机上。这种冗余使得篡改任何一个分类帐都是徒劳的,由此创建了一个高度可信的交易记录。为食品行业开发的基于区块链的云平台IBM Food Trust已经被主要的食品销售商所采用。

通过将种植者、分销商和零售商整合到一个共同的区块链上,Food Trust创建了一个关于给定食品在端到端供应链中路径的可信记录。在对该技术的一项测试中,沃尔玛几秒钟内就追踪了“受污染”商品的来源;而如果靠文字和数字记录的传统方法,可能需要数天时间。有了这一功能,零售商和餐馆几乎可以立即将受污染的产品从流通中移除,只销毁同一来源的库存,而不是浪费该产品的全国库存。许多食品企业巨头 – 沃尔玛,家乐福,山姆会员店,艾伯森公司,史密斯菲尔德食品公司,BeefChain,Wakefern Food(ShopRite的母公司)和Topco Associates(集团采购组织) – 都加入了IBM Food Trust。其他组织也引入了区块链技术来增强可追溯性。

为了从一开始就预防食物中毒,研究实验室和公司正在开发小型传感器,可以监测托盘、包装盒或单独包装的产品的质量和安全。例如,Timestrip UK和Vitsab International独立创建了一种传感器标签,如果一个产品被暴露在超过推荐的温度,颜色就会改变;Insignia Technologies销售的一种传感器,包装打开后,会慢慢改变颜色,显示何时可以扔掉食物。(如果产品没有储存在适当的温度下,颜色变化会更快。)此外,科学家们还在研制一种传感器,用以探测变质过程中产生的气体副产品。除了预防疾病,这种传感器还可以通过显示食物可以安全食用来减少浪费。

不过,成本仍然是大规模使用这种传感器的障碍。尽管如此,食品行业对确保食品安全和限制浪费的需求,正推动这项技术和区块链向前发展。

         8. 更安全的核反应堆正在建设中

控制大气中的碳需要多种能源技术的结合——可能包括核反应堆。虽然核反应堆不排放碳,但由于发生了几起重大事故,被认为是有风险的。而这种风险可以大大降低。

几十年来,商业反应堆使用相同的燃料:小颗粒的二氧化铀堆积在由锆合金制成的长圆柱形棒内。锆允许粒子中裂变产生的中子轻松地穿过反应堆堆芯内浸在水中的许多棒,从而发生一种自我维持的、产生热量的核反应。

麻烦的是,如果锆过热,它会与水反应并产生氢,氢气不稳定会爆炸。这种情况导致了世界上两起最严重的反应堆事故:1979年美国三哩岛的潜在爆炸和部分熔毁;2011年日本福岛第一核电站爆炸和辐射泄露。(1986年切尔诺贝利事故是由于反应堆设计和运行故障造成的。)

像西屋电气公司和Framatome这样的制造商正在加速开发所谓的事故耐受性燃料,这种燃料不太可能过热,即使过热,产生的氢气也很少,甚至不产生氢气。在一些变型中,涂覆锆包层以使反应最小化。在其他情况下,锆和甚至二氧化铀都用不同的材料代替。

尽管核电在美国停滞不前,并且正在德国和其他地方逐步淘汰,但俄罗斯和中国正在积极发展。对于这些新燃料的制造商而言,这些市场可能是有利可图的。

俄罗斯也在采取其他安全措施;国营公司Rosatom最近在国内外安装了更新的“被动”安全系统,即使工厂的电力丢失,冷却液无法主动循环,也能抑制过热。西屋公司和其他公司也将被动安全功能纳入其更新设计中。

制造商也正在试验“第四代”型号,它们使用液态钠或熔盐代替水来转移裂变产生的热量,从而消除了产生危险氢气的可能性。

在美国,长期以来,缺乏一个永久性的、深层的乏燃料地质储存库,阻碍了该行业的扩张。政治情绪可能正在发生变化。令人惊讶的是,今年春天,十多位美国国会议员提出了重新发放内华达州尤卡山核废料储存库许可证的措施。自1987年以来,尤卡山一直被吹捧为美国领先的核废料储存库。与此同时,阿拉斯加州参议员丽莎·穆尔科斯基主张在爱达荷州国家实验室开发非常小的模块化反应堆。一些西部州与俄勒冈州的NuScale Power公司就其12个模块化反应堆达成了一项初步协议。改进燃料和小型反应堆的发展可能是核能再生的重要组成部分。

         9. DNA数据存储比你想象中更快到来

根据软件公司Domo的说法,2018年,人们每分钟在谷歌上进行388万次搜索,在YouTube上观看了433万个视频,发送了159,362,760封电子邮件,发送了473,000次推文,并在Instagram上发布49,000张照片。假设世界人口达到78亿,到2020年,全球每人每秒可创建1.7兆字节的数据,相当于每年约418万亿亿兆。

如果是这样的话,目前存储0和1容量的磁性或光学数据存储系统无法持续超过一个世纪。此外,运行数据中心需要大量的能量。简而言之,我们即将面临一个严重的数据存储问题,随着时间的推移,这个问题只会变得更加严重。

硬盘驱动器的替代方案正在取得进展:基于DNA的数据存储。由核苷酸A,T,C和G的长链组成的DNA是生命的信息存储材料。数据可以按照这些字母的顺序存储,从而将DNA转变为一种新的信息技术形式。它已经过常规排序(读取),合成(写入)并且可以轻松准确地复制。DNA也是非常稳定的,就像50多万年前的一匹化石马的完整基因组测序所证明的那样。而且储存它不需要太多的能量。

但最引人注目的是存储容量。DNA能够以远远超过电子设备的密度准确地存储大量数据。例如,根据哈佛大学George Church及其同事2016年在《自然材料》杂志上发表的计算,简单的大肠杆菌的存储密度约为1019位/立方厘米。在这样的密度下,世界上目前一年的存储需求通过一个边长约一米的DNA立方体就能得到满足了。

DNA数据存储的前景不仅仅是理论上的。例如,在2017年,哈佛大学Church团队采用了CRISPR DNA编辑技术,将人类手的图像记录到大肠杆菌的基因组中,其读取准确率超过90%。华盛顿大学和微软研究院的研究人员开发了一种全自动系统,用于编写、存储和读取DNA编码的数据。许多公司,包括微软和Twist Bioscience,正在努力推进DNA存储技术。

与此同时,DNA已经被用于以不同的方式管理数据,研究人员正在努力解决大量数据。新一代测序技术的最新进展使得数十亿个DNA序列同时轻松读取。有了这种能力,研究人员可以使用条形码 – 利用DNA序列作为分子识别“标签” – 以跟踪实验结果。DNA条形码的采用,大大加快化学工程、材料科学和纳米技术等领域的研究步伐。例如,在佐治亚理工学院,James E. Dahlman的实验室正在迅速确定更安全的基因疗法;其他人正在研究如何对抗耐药性和预防癌症转移。

让DNA数据存储变得普遍面临的挑战之一是读写DNA的成本和速度,如果要与电子存储竞争,读写DNA的成本和速度需要进一步降低。即使DNA没有成为一种无处不在的存储材料,它也几乎肯定会被用于以全新的规模生成信息,并长期保存某些类型的数据。

         10. 公用事业规模的能源储存将实现可再生电网

由于能源系统脱碳的日益紧迫性以及风能和太阳能技术成本急剧下降,世界电力供应方式正在快速转变。据美国能源情报署称,在过去十年中,美国可再生能源发电量增加了一倍,主要来自风能和太阳能装置。在2019年1月,EIA预测风能、太阳能和其他非水电可再生能源将成为未来两年中增长最快的电力组合。但这些能源的间断性意味着,电力公司需要一种方法,在没有阳光和没有大风的时候,还能获取能源。这种需求使得人们对储能技术的兴趣日益浓厚,尤其是锂离子电池,它最终将不再只是电网中的一个小角色。

几十年来,抽水蓄能一直是美国主要的大规模蓄能方式。为了储存能量,水被泵入更高的水库;当需要这种能量时,水被释放到下部水库中,沿途一直流过水轮机。美国能源部的数据显示,抽水蓄能目前占美国公用事业规模蓄能的95%。但随着效率和可靠性的提高,以及制造成本的大幅下降,锂离子电池的存在感也在上升。美国能源情报署(EIA)表示,它们占美国公用事业规模电池存储容量的80%以上,到2019年2月,美国公用事业规模的电池储能能力将从10年前的区区几兆瓦跃升至866兆瓦。

彭博新能源财经在2019年3月的一份分析报告中指出,自2012年以来,锂离子电池的发电成本下降了76%,使其与通常以天然气为动力的发电厂(在用电需求高的时候,这些发电厂就会启动)的竞争力接近。到目前为止,虽然电池主要用于进行简单、快速的调整来维持电力水平,但包括佛罗里达州和加利福尼亚州在内的几个州的公用事业公司正在增加锂离子电池,这种电池可以使用两到四个小时。能源研究公司Wood Mackenzie预计,2018年至2019年,储能市场将增长一倍,2019年至2020年将增长两倍。

据专家介绍,锂离子电池很可能成为未来5到10年的主导技术,并且持续改进将导致电池能够存储4至8小时的能量。

但是,要达到可再生能源和能源储存能够满足发电基本负荷的水平,将需要更长时间跨度的能源储存,这意味着要超越锂离子电池。潜在的备选方案包括其他高科技选项,如用于泵送液体电解质的流电池和氢燃料电池,以及更简单的概念,如抽水蓄能水电和所谓的重力蓄能。

抽水蓄能水电一旦安装就很便宜,但建造成本很高,而且只能在特定的地形上使用。类似地,重力存储的概念也很简单,它的目的是利用剩余的电力来抬起一个重块,然后再放下来驱动涡轮机发电。尽管有几家公司正在进行演示,并吸引了投资,但这个想法尚未实现。其他的替代方案仍在开发之中,以使它们与锂离子电池相比,具有足够的可靠性、效率和成本竞争力。

美国能源情报署(EIA)的数据显示,到2017年底,美国只部署了三套大规模的流电池存储系统,而公用事业规模的氢系统仍处于示范阶段。美国政府正在资助这一领域的一些工作,特别是通过高级研究项目机构,但这些技术和能源储存方面的大部分投资都发生在中国和韩国,它们正加大对储存研究的投入。

目前尚不确定能源储存成本是否会继续下降以及将会持续下降多少。然而,各国政府(包括美国州和地方一级)实现无碳电力生产的持续承诺将继续推动提供越来越多的存储方案。

 

文章来源:前瞻网 Emma Chou

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